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When Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation four years ago, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that era preceded a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious statements and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi is profound, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a rejection of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting recent peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this visit is its very occurrence," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to a form of normal international relations."

For India, the stakes are particularly elevated. The country faces a challenging international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a weakened Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

The tightrope walk was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and is firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This relationship was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. However, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, accusations increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," noted a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Apart from international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China continues to be the greatest threat to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an excessively close bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but avoid overly reliant that a supply disruption would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Enhanced trade relations is expected to be a major topic. The Russian leader has publicly emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil imports is central. Although the Indian government has vowed to continue buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. Simultaneously, India has moved to boost imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but said it would proceed without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is expected to be mentioned mainly through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi can speak to both sides, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst noted. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is constrained."

In the end, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is fundamentally one of "pure realpolitik," guided by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.